Digitalización: Clave para el crecimiento de la productividad en América Latina

Por: Raul L. Katz y Fernando Callorda

El Producto Interno Bruto (PIB) de América Latina entre 2003 y 2016 ha crecido un 48%, de acuerdo con los datos del Banco Mundial.

Sin embargo, la brecha del PIB per cápita de la región latinoamericana en comparación con los países de la Organización para la Cooperación y el Desarrollo Económico (OCDE), que agrupa a los países que aportan el 70% del mercado mundial, ha crecido de US$ 23.117 en 2003 a US$ 28.553 en 2016.

La contribución de la productividad total de los factores de capital, trabajo y materias primas (denominada productividad multifactorial) al crecimiento económico de la región para los últimos catorce años ha sido negativa.

La caída de la productividad multifactorial de América Latina se contrapone a la tasa de crecimiento de la misma variable, para igual período, en otras economías como China, Corea del Sur, Rusia e India (1,76%).

Según futuras proyecciones del Banco Mundial la única manera posible de retomar tasas de crecimiento históricas que oscilen alrededor del 3%, y permitan a la región cerrar la brecha con la OCDE, es un aumento de la productividad multifactorial.

En este contexto, la digitalización representa una transformación socioeconómica resultante de la adopción masiva por parte de individuos, empresas y gobierno de tecnologías digitales de información y comunicación, con un impacto significativo en la productividad.

La contribución de la digitalización al crecimiento del PIB y de la productividad multifactorial es altamente significativa.

Un aumento del índice de digitalización de un país de 1% resulta en un incremento de 0,32% en el PIB, y de 0,23% en la productividad multifactorial

El aceleramiento en el desarrollo de la digitalización, tanto en infraestructura digital como en el crecimiento de industrias digitales y la correspondiente digitalización de la producción, representa la palanca fundamental para el aumento de la productividad multifactorial y el correspondiente cerramiento de la brecha que separa a América Latina de los países de la OCDE.

Si América Latina acelera el crecimiento de la digitalización para alcanzar a la OCDE en 2030.

En caso de cumplir este objetivo, la región logrará un crecimiento anual adicional de su PIB de 0,67 puntos porcentuales, lo que le permitiría superar la barrera del crecimiento anual del 3% de aquí a 2030.

El crecimiento del sector y su derrame en el resto de la economía producirán un impacto positivo en la generación de empleo para absorber en el mercado laboral el aumento anual de población esperado del 0,86% para la región.

Además, provocará una inyección adicional de capital, lo que contribuirá, a su vez, al crecimiento del PIB.

El escenario de convergencia en la digitalización logrará generar para la región un PIB acumulado adicional de US$ 708.460 millones entre 2017 y 2030 y 411.000 empleos anuales.

Por otro lado, si la digitalización no se acelera, el PIB latinoamericano pasaría de representar 22,55% del de la OCDE a 21,81%, con lo que la brecha económica se ampliaría aún más que en la actualidad.

En un contexto de disminución de las tasas de crecimiento, una de las palancas más importantes para estimular el crecimiento económico es el aumento de la productividad y para que la misma aumente, se debe incrementar la digitalización.

Para ver el artículo original puedes ingresar al siguiente link.

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